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Our country has not enter period of fast growth high inflation
From;  Author:Stand originally
The author thinks, prospective our country won't enter period of fast growth, high inflation. Because increase rate of our country real economy did not exceed potential economy increase rate, won't produce the situation that fast growth and high inflation coexist accordingly. In the meantime, the posture that cost of product of prospective our country won't appear to rise quickly continuously. From will for a long time look, price of international raw product also won't rise continuously. Rise in cost and in the environment with market more intense competition, the enterprise should have more comprehensive plan to oneself development, this just is structure of our country industry is optimized upgrade, the vast power that economic progress means transforms.

   One, increase rate of our country real economy under potential economy increase rate

From economy growth theory and practice look, the phenomenon that fast growth and high inflation coexist, can happen in prep above of real economy increase rate only below the circumstance of potential economy increase rate, it is the performance that economy grew a level to exceed supportive economy to increase a requirement. And fall under the condition of potential economy increase rate in real economy increase rate, it is impossible to appear fast growth and high inflation coexist of the phenomenon.

Our country's current real economy increase rate under potential economy increase rate. To this one conclusion, need is done a few discuss. To the potential economy increase rate of our country, understanding is different, from 8% to 9% down to 10% above. Main reason depends on potential economy increase rate is change, all element that decide economy increases latent capacity are change. Basically be the element that decides supply latent capacity, include capital, technology, labour force to wait. Look from these element conditions, the potential economy increase rate that I think our country is current should be in at least 12% above. As a result of,this is, increase rate of our country economy was achieved 2007 11.9% , but still put in many capital the rest (the bank puts poor, many foreign exchange reserve in great quantities to wait) , labour force is residual (obtain employment remains one of the most outstanding society problems inadequately) , technical supply latent capacity, the condition of delivery of significant core technology that if consider foreign technology and our country innovate independently,forms, should say very big also. Give latent capacity in order to offer up a sacrifice integratedly the case, can think increase rate of our country potential economy is in at least 12% above.

It is important to behave potential economy increase rate to be in another of this level above basis, achieve when economic increase rate namely 11.9% when, still appeared a large number of favorable balance of trade (favorable balance of trade reached 2600 much dollars 2007) , look from angle of national economic accounting, this is the result that social total investment is less than social total deposit, it is another proof of real economy increase rate under potential economy increase rate.
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